Longitudinal serum HIV RNA quantification: correlation to viral phenotype at seroconversion and clinical outcome.

To investigate the longitudinal changes in serum HIV RNA, and to clarify whether the viral load early in infection has a predictive value for the clinical outcome; also, to correlate viral phenotype at seroconversion and changes in CD4 cell counts with viral burden. Twenty seroconverters with HIV isolates available at seroconversion had HIV RNA quantified by polymerase chain reaction (PCR) at seroconversion and thereafter every 6 months. Mean follow-up time was 65 months. Patients were classified according to viral phenotype at seroconversion, time to AIDS progression, serum viral load within the first year (less or more than 1.5 x 10(4) copies/ml). High viral load at seroconversion was followed by a significant decline within the first months (P < 0.0005). Decline to < 1.5 x 10(4) copies/ml was correlated with slower progression to AIDS (P < 0.05). A correlation between the rate of CD4 decline and the median viral load during the ensuing viral load plateau phase was also shown (P < 0.05). Subsequent to this phase the viral burden increased. Rapid progressors had higher viral load than slow- or non-progressors; this was particularly pronounced late in infection. Harbouring syncytium-inducing (SI) virus at seroconversion was associated with faster progression to AIDS than non-SI (NSI; P < 0.005). The increased in vitro replication rate of SI over NSI was not translated into significantly higher serum HIV RNA. Serum HIV RNA is high around the time of seroconversion. A significant decline within the first months hereafter is followed by a plateau phase, which in turn is followed by an increase in HIV RNA. HIV RNA early in infection has a predictive value for the clinical outcome. The increased virulence of SI over NSI virus did not translate into significantly higher HIV RNA values.