Model to predict aerial dispersal of bacteria during environmental release.

Risk assessment for genetically engineered bacteria sprayed onto crops includes determination of off-site dispersal and deposition. The ability to predict microbial dispersal patterns is essential to characterize the uncertainty (risk) associated with environmental release of recombinant organisms. Toward this end, a particle dispersal model was developed to predict recovery of bacteria on fallout plates at various distances and directions about a test site. The microcomputer simulation incorporates particle size distribution, wind speed and direction, turbulence, evaporation, sedimentation, and mortality, with a time step of 0.5 s. The model was tested against data reported from three field applications of nonrecombinant bacteria and two applications of recombinant bacteria. Simulated dispersal of 10(5) particles was compared with reported deposition measurements. The model may be useful in defining appropriate populations of organisms for release, methods of release or application, characteristics of a release site that influence containment or dispersal, and in developing an appropriate sampling methodology for monitoring the dispersal of organisms such as genetically engineered bacteria.