Abstract
We discuss the context, content and importance of the paper 'The population dynamics of microparasites and their invertebrate hosts', by R. M. Anderson and R. M. May, published in the Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society as a stand-alone issue in 1981. We do this from the broader perspective of the study of infectious disease dynamics, rather than the specific perspective of the dynamics of insect pathogens. We argue that their 1981 paper fits seamlessly in the systematic study of infectious disease dynamics that was initiated by the authors in 1978, combining effective use of simple mathematical models, firmly rooted in biology, with observable or empirically measurable ingredients and quantities, and promoting extensive capacity building. This systematic approach, taking ecology and biology rather than applied mathematics as the motivation for advance, proved essential for the maturation of the field, and culminated in their landmark textbook of 1991. This commentary was written to celebrate the 350th anniversary of the journal Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society.
Keywords
ecology
epidemiology
infectious diseases
invertebrates
mathematical modelling
population dynamics
MeSH Terms
Animals
Epidemiology/history
History, 20th Century
Host-Parasite Interactions/physiology
Mathematical Concepts
Parasites/physiology
Population Dynamics
Authors & Affiliations
2 authors, click to expand affiliations / ORCID
Heesterbeek J A P
Department of Farm Animal Health, Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, University of Utrecht, Yalelaan 7, Utrecht 3584 CL, The Netherlands j.a.p.heesterbeek@uu.nl.
Roberts M G
Institute of Natural and Mathematical Sciences, New Zealand Institute for Advanced Study and the Infectious Disease Research Centre, Massey University, Private Bag 102 904, North Shore Mail Centre, Auckland, New Zealand.
References (20)
20 references, click to expand
-
A brief history of R0 and a recipe for its calculation.
Acta Biotheor. 2002;50(3):189-204
PMID: 12211331
-
An attempt at a new analysis of the mortality caused by smallpox and of the advantages of inoculation to prevent it. 1766.
Rev Med Virol. 2004 Sep-Oct;14(5):275-88
PMID: 15334536
-
Towards a systems approach for understanding honeybee decline: a stocktaking and synthesis of existing models.
J Appl Ecol. 2013 Aug;50(4):868-880
PMID: 24223431
-
Recurrent insect outbreaks caused by temperature-driven changes in system stability.
Science. 2013 Aug 16;341(6147):796-9
PMID: 23907532
-
Chromosome rearrangements for the control of insect pests.
Science. 1972 May 26;176(4037):875-80
PMID: 4402399
-
Should we expect population thresholds for wildlife disease?
Trends Ecol Evol. 2005 Sep;20(9):511-9
PMID: 16701428
-
Infectious disease agents mediate interaction in food webs and ecosystems.
Proc Biol Sci. 2014 Feb 22;281(1777):20132709
PMID: 24403336
-
The joint effects of the release of sterile males and immigration of fertilized females on a density regulated population.
Theor Popul Biol. 1978 Feb;13(1):40-71
PMID: 644519
-
Population biology of infectious diseases: Part I.
Nature. 1979 Aug 2;280(5721):361-7
PMID: 460412
-
Disease associations between honeybees and bumblebees as a threat to wild pollinators.
Nature. 2014 Feb 20;506(7488):364-6
PMID: 24553241
-
Coevolution of hosts and parasites.
Parasitology. 1982 Oct;85 (Pt 2):411-26
PMID: 6755367
-
Modelling the spread of American foulbrood in honeybees.
J R Soc Interface. 2013 Nov 6;10(88):20130650
PMID: 24026473
-
The sudden collapse of pollinator communities.
Ecol Lett. 2014 Mar;17(3):350-9
PMID: 24386999
-
Characterizing the next-generation matrix and basic reproduction number in ecological epidemiology.
J Math Biol. 2013 Mar;66(4-5):1045-64
PMID: 23086599
-
Population biology of infectious diseases: Part II.
Nature. 1979 Aug 9;280(5722):455-61
PMID: 460424
-
Chronic sublethal stress causes bee colony failure.
Ecol Lett. 2013 Dec;16(12):1463-9
PMID: 24112478
-
Stability in real food webs: weak links in long loops.
Science. 2002 May 10;296(5570):1120-3
PMID: 12004131
-
Infectious diseases and population cycles of forest insects.
Science. 1980 Nov 7;210(4470):658-61
PMID: 17815156
-
What causes population cycles of forest Lepidoptera?
Trends Ecol Evol. 1996;11(1):28-32
PMID: 21237756
-
Beyond insecticides: new thinking on an ancient problem.
Nat Rev Microbiol. 2013 Mar;11(3):181-93
PMID: 23411863