Incidence and predictors of hypertension over 8 years among Chinese men and women.

To determine the 8-year incidence of hypertension and its risk factors among Chinese adults. A population-based sample of 10,525 Chinese adults aged > or = 40 years and free from hypertension at baseline was followed up from 1991 to 1999-2000. Incident hypertension was defined as systolic pressure > or = 140 mmHg, diastolic pressure > or = 90 mmHg, or current use of antihypertensive medication. Over a mean of 8.2 years of follow-up, 28.9% of men and 26.9% of women developed hypertension. Among men, independent predictors of incident hypertension were baseline age [relative risk (RR) per 5 years: 1.10; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.07, 1.13], living in urban regions versus rural regions (RR: 0.74; 95% CI: 0.64, 0.85), alcohol drinking versus non-drinking (RR: 1.13; 95% CI: 1.02, 1.24), prehypertension versus normotension (RR: 1.70; 95% CI: 1.53, 1.88), heart rate (RR of third versus first tertile: 1.27; 95% CI: 1.13, 1.44), body mass index (RR of third versus first tertile: 1.28; 95% CI: 1.12, 1.46) and low versus high physical activity (RR: 1.27; 95% CI: 1.10, 1.47). Results were similar for women, with current smoking in place of alcohol drinking and opposite results for region. The population-attributable risk of modifiable risk factors was between 25 and 50%. These data indicate that the incidence of hypertension is high among these Chinese adults, and suggest that 25-50% of new hypertension cases could be prevented with risk factor modification. Given the excess cardiovascular mortality associated with hypertension, these data call for urgent improvements in hypertension prevention and control programs in China.